admin on June 1, 2009
After the recent Juniper Report predicting WiMAX will Generate $15billion by 2014, Maravedis forecasts an accumulated 75 million WiMAX subscribers by the end of 2014. “Market forecasts have been revised to reflect the economic slowdown and the progress made by the LTE camp, ” said Adlane Fellah, Maravedis CEO. The market research firm announced the publication of its report WiMAX & Broadband Wireless Access Equipment Market Analysis, Trends and Forecasts, 2009-2014.
“Facing a strong challenge from LTE, WiMAX is leveraging its existing foothold. Our research shows its healthy ecosystem is key for its survival. More than 22 vendors shipped a total of 2.2 million WiMAX CPEs in 2008, [...] Similarly, the silicon market faced increasing competition with more than 6 players enjoying market shares of more than 7% each. Consolidations, mergers and exists in the device and silicon vendor communities will reduce competition in 2009 if volumes don’t ramp up fast enough,” noted Bilel Bouraoui, Senior Analyst and co-author of the report.
The report confirms that both WiMAX and LTE are converging upon 4G service capabilities. LTE’s primary market, 3G operators, will be unlikely to deploy LTE sooner than 2012. “While LTE appears to have the decisive volume advantage, the lag between 3G evolution and the next generation mobile network will greatly benefit WiMAX in the near term,” noted Robert Syputa, Senior Analyst.
Key Findings
- Korean and Taiwanese ODMs accounted for 60% of CPEs shipped in 2008.
- The 802.16e-2005 share of new WiMAX subscribers will peak in 2012 and be dominated by mobile devices with embedded wireless modems.
- Alcatel-Lucent, Alvarion, Motorola and Samsung were the leaders in BWA and WiMAX combined equipment markets,
- The WiMAX equipment market, which includes active WiMAX subscribers, will reach an annual US$4 billion in 2014, from over 2US$ billion at the end of 2008.
- Proprietary and fixed WiMAX equipment markets will continue to grow organically to meet the needs of WISPs and vertical segments.
- Service revenues generated by broadband wireless services will reach US$15 billion in 2014.
… Read the rest
admin on April 29, 2009
Maravedis and Tonse Telecom predict this week Wimax Subscribers in India will Exceed 13 Million by 2013. This report concludes that deployment of 3G and WiMAX streams will generate a reasonable user base over the next 5 year period, before noticeable LTE deployments begin to make an impact in India.
“Despite delayed spectrum auctions which are impeding a tremendous economic driver, 3G/BWA/WiMAX network activity is already on a roll, [...] For the severely underserved Indian broadband market, demand for wireless broadband connectivity continues across all sectors: retail, SOHO, SMEs and large enterprises alike,” said Sridhar Pai, co-author of the report. While the global economy is lying dormant, demand for telecommunications services in India continues to fuel significant growth in the sector. “We estimate that in 2008, about 10,000 BWA/WiMAX base station sectors have been deployed by all operators combined. Currently there are about 300,000 BWA/WiMAX subscribers already using these services,” Pai noted.
According to the report, the big push will be seen post-spectrum auctions. “However, aided by pre-allocation in the 2.5GHz band, incumbents are already developing massive national rollout plans for both 3G and WiMAX. Expect significant pan-India deployments from other successful auction bidders,[...] “Wireless CAPEX has already reached US$ sub-100 levels per line, thereby confirming the primary transport technology will be wireless”, said Maravedis CEO Adlane Fellah.
Key highlights :
- Internet access is still the big broadband driver in India, with wireless broadband becoming the clear option owing to economics and ease of deployment.
- BWA operators have yet to resolve many service quality issues.
- India is expected to see the world’s lowest end-to-end cost for WiMAX services, with costs driven down faster than in any other market.
- Computer penetration is still very low and the Indian telecom sector operates in a volume-driven market.
- Innovative business models such as public-private partnerships will emerge, together with low cost devices and a vibrant eco-system.
… Read the rest
admin on April 15, 2009
According to the latest report from Maravedis, approximately 1.45 million WiMAX subscribers were added worldwide during 2008, while the WCDMA subscriber base increased by more than 90 million. The average quarter-over-quarter subscriber growth rate in 2008 was 21.5%.
Total BWA/WiMAX revenues for 2008 totaled US$1.82 billion (US$898.78 million in 2007), which represents a 102% annual revenue increase despite the economic downturn that began affecting operator revenues in Q3 2008.
“2008 was a difficult year for most WiMAX vendors, which accelerated both market consolidation and niche specialization in order to survive the downturn, [...] Because many operators are planning to deploy mobile WiMAX equipment, devices based on 802.16-2004 experienced a slow down” said Cintia Garza, coauthor of the report and 4GCounts team leader.
“Government and service industries are expected to be the top spenders on vertical applications. As WiMAX operators roll out their networks worldwide, increased availability of coverage will accelerate adoption of vertical services,” noted Basharat Ashai, co-author of the report.
Additional Key findings :
- The Middle East and Africa were the fastest growing regions for WiMAX in 2008.
- Operators across all regions generated residential and business ARPUs of US$43.8 and US$122 respectively.
- The number of base station sectors deployed during Q4 2008 totaled 138,162; an increase of 14% from 121,269 the previous quarter.
- Operators have faced various problems when deploying their base stations, including a lack of capacity.
- One of the largest deployments we expect in terms of numbers of CPEs and base stations sectors installed is BSNL (India).
… Read the rest
admin on April 1, 2009
The top 22 operators worldwide will contribute nearly 2.5 million subscribers by the end of 2009 and close to 4 million by the end of 2010 according to the latest research report from Maravedis.
Although the top 22 WiMAX operators enjoy the support of strong investor groups and deep pockets to offset limited credit facilities, they are still impacted by the financial crisis. Given the current global economic uncertainty, wireless capital expenditures by most of the top WiMAX operators are predicted to slow down in 2009. “Furthermore, some operators are feeling pressure from not having the right spectrum or sufficient spectrum to achieve their deployment plans,” added Basharat Ashai, co-author of the report.
“It is important to keep in mind that WiMAX Technology is just now entering a phase of commercial availability that makes volume applications, including machine to machine, utility monitoring, metro-wide mobile broadband and embedded consumer applications feasible. In addition, the lean WiMAX ecosystem has already reached price points for ICs, modules and devices to compete in volume markets,” noted Robert Syputa, Partner & Senior Analyst.
Key findings
- 47% of current networks account for less than 10,000 subscribers
- 75% of operators have more than 10 million POP covered
- Operators are generating an average ARPU of US$35 for residential services and US$93 for business services
- 33% of operators use only microwave radios for their backhaul
- 52% plan to deploy femtocells in the next 24 months
Operators selected for the report enjoy two key conditions: they have deep enough pockets to deploy major wimax networks and have access to sufficient spectrum to be profitable in the long term. In fact 46% of operators interviewed have 50MHz or more of spectrum, while 45% have more than US$100 million in cash. These operators include obvious names such as Clearwire, and also operators who currently enjoy a relatively small subscriber base, but for whom Maravedis believes there is great potential, such as Scartel (Russia). Other such “strategic” operators include: UQ Communications (Japan), Far EasTone (Taiwan), BSNL (India) and Telmex International.… Read the rest
