Ari Zoldan, CEO of Quantum Networks, recently spoke with Ben Kolada, an analyst with the New Paradigm Resources Group, as part of NPRG’s Conversations with Communications Innovators podcast series. Ari discussed the international reach of WiMAX technology, the potential for WiMAX in the United States, and the implications of the Sprint/Clearwire rollout, including the nature of the relationship of WiMAX technology to Long Term Evolution.

• Listen to the podcast here : Ari Zoldan Discusses WiMAX with NPRG

New Paradigm Resources Group is a strategic consulting and research firm for communications innovators. NPRG’s podcast series, available in full at the NPRG homepage, contains discussions with the leaders who are shaping the telecommunications industry.

Now that Sprint’s long-awaited Xohm service has launched in Baltimore to mostly positive reviews, researchers, bloggers, and journalists are beginning to place their bets on the upcoming battle between WiMAX and long term evolution (LTE), its toughest challenger. Researchers at In-Stat have struck the first blow for WiMAX, concluding in a new report that WiMAX is likely to “outpace” LTE over the next few years, though both technologies are still years away from full implementation. In-Stat argues that because LTE will not be ready for at least another year or two, the timing of network roll-outs favors WiMAX technology. But CNET’s Marguerite Reardon is skeptical, as she draws a comparison between Sprint’s Xohm roll-out and the recent failed efforts by EarthLink to develop municipal Wi-Fi networks. She argues that Sprint’s business model may be doomed to fail because it pits WiMAX against existing 3G data services and cheaper, more consistent broadband options such as Verizon DSL. In the absence of financial incentives and a greater variety of WiMAX-ready devices, Reardon predicts that Xohm will face a tough battle for consumers – not necessarily against LTE, but against HSPA products offered by competitors.

However, while Sprint’s WiMAX network in Baltimore may not be as consistent as existing broadband services — for now, at least — it still offers stronger, faster, and more consistent connections than EarthLink’s Wi-Fi project, which depended on countless access points, each with a limited reach. WiMAX offers the freedom of municipal Wi-Fi, but with far less hassle — so the real goal for Sprint is to convince consumers that its service will make their lives easier, liberate them from coffee shops, and save them the trouble of dealing with routers and modems. Their inability to pull this off is by no means a foregone conclusion. Municipal Wi-Fi, after all, is still an attractive concept in theory, if not in practice. And while it’s true that WiMAX-ready mobile devices and laptops are currently few in number, we can doubtlessly expect to see more of these devices entering the market if the launch of Xohm proves to be successful in the long run.

Reardon doesn’t mention LTE directly, but she does inject a bit of unpleasant reality into the WiMAX vs. LTE debate by pointing out the gloomy state of the economy, and in doing so, she raises an important question: what if delays in WiMAX roll-outs give LTE technology time to catch up? Phil Skeffington, an associate with UK-based consultancy Mott MacDonald Schema, doesn’t see a problem. In fact, if Skeffington is right, the battle between WiMAX and LTE may even result in a draw. Skeffington believes that WiMAX and LTE are “complementary technologies,” with LTE poised to become the preferred technology for mobile handsets, and WiMAX set to corner the market of “nomadic” laptop users because of its superior bandwidth capabilities. Because demand from laptop users is higher right now, WiMAX is still likely to hold on to its early lead. Its ability to emerge from the fight unscathed depends on Sprint’s ability to attract consumers, to create demand for devices, and to convince manufacturers and investors to meet that demand. Fortunately for backers of WiMAX, there is plenty of cause for optimism.

September 29, 2008: That Monday was the fateful day of Sprint-Nextel’s long-awaited WiMAX rollout. Xohm launched commercially in Baltimore to great anticipation in four forms: a $35/month modem plan, a $45/month mobile service for use with a PC ExpressCard, a $65/month “pick 2″ plan, and a $10/day tryout, but it’s really the second option that brings something new to the table. Internet anywhere in a city? No wires? And not even that, but faster than your usual cabled setup too! So needless to say, many have already taken Xohm out for a (literal) test drive, so much so that the ExpressCards are selling out in stores.

The bottom line? PC Magazine and Information Week both seem to agree–the new service is undoubtedly fast. PC Magazine’s Sascha Segan: “With a strong signal, I saw download speeds averaging 3.6Mbps, with my fastest test at a blazing 7.1Mbps. That’s faster than my home cable connection!” But “strong signal” are the operative words; the new network still has a lot of gaps to fill. J. Nicholas Hoover of Information Week confesses to having run across a few “dead zones” in areas that were stated as covered, and signal fluctuations were common, as Segan elaborates: “At a shopping mall…I had a significantly stronger signal on the south side of the mall than on the north side.“  But, he continues, “[T]hat’s to be expected from a new wireless network in its first week…Networks start out patchy and then fill in.”

So Sprint’s WiMAX network is far from perfect. But for now, Baltimore residents should be glad to have 35 mph streaming video. Next up is Chicago and D.C.; the former is already getting hyped up with an exhibit in the Museum of Science of Industry featuring a three-story WiMAX-enabled Smart Home. And if you aren’t in Baltimore but are in the seven announced near-future sites (Chicago, D.C., Dallas-Fort Worth, Boston, Providence, Philadelphia), you may still be able to take advantage of fixed WiMAX speeds!

The Sprint-Clearwire deal gave Clearwire undeniable credibility in WiMAX development, and the company is moving forward with the technology in a big way. Beta tests are underway in Portland, with “more than 70 percent of [the] WiMAX sites for Portland…in construction or on air.” Completion is slated for the end of year, with commercial deployments in that city and 3 others in 2009.

But now they have more than just the hardware; as of July 2nd, Clearwire has leased 3 one-year licenses on the 39 GHz spectrum from IDT Spectrum, 2 of which are in the Oregon-Washington area. You may not have heard much about IDT Spectrum recently, but expect to hear the name much in the near future; they own spectrums nationwide, mostly in the 28 and 38/39 GHz range. As we come upon the dawning age of wireless, the value of spectrum cannot be understated: you need spectrum to do anything wireless–especially for WiMAX, which is contentionless. (That means it can only operate on licensed spectrum because it is built to assume the air is clear. If it isn’t, the equipment just doesn’t work! ). Naturally, some companies are trying to develop equipment to change that, but for now, that is the nature of most WiMAX equipment. Those who bought spectrum when a majority of it was auctioned off by the FCC in the 80s are finally seeing their investment bear fruit, whether they intend to lease or sell –  remember the 700MHz auction earlier this year, which grossed a total of $19 billion?

So Clearwire has hardware, spectrum, and is well underway in deployment; what’s to follow ? If all goes well, 2009 will see Las Vegas, Grand Rapids, Atlanta, and Portland commercial launches as the first four commercial markets for Clearwire’s WiMAX service, primed to follow at the heels of the Xohm launches in Baltimore, Chicago, and Washington D.C. in the fall of this year. The start of the WiMAX nationwide buildout is only months away.

If Amsterdam is any indication, mobile WiMAX is already starting to overtake widespread WiFi in large metropolitan centers. Today Worldmax, a privately held Dutch firm, with Alcatel-Lucent, has activated a WiMAX network that covers the hub of the city, providing high-speed broadband to subscribers far beyond the limited berth of WiFi hotspots (Reuters).

This network, termed Aurea, is only a shadow of the scale of deployment the company wishes to have in place within the next few years–by the end of the summer, the entire city; by the a few years’ end, the entire country. The new network boasts activation within 2 working days, and a monthly subscription fee, entailing access to unlimited wireless data, of 20 euros a month. Currently, it needs a WiMAX PC card and USB adapter, but as soon as Intel (a large investor in Worldmax) produces its WiMAX-compatible notebook chips, users will have all the technology they need, right out of the box (Edubourse). Quite the efficient relationship!

Worldmax, Alcatel-Lucent, and Intel intends to showcase their new system with live feeds from taxis and cruise ships at the WiMAX Forum Global Congress, which, in fact, just started today. Whether their network lives up to expectation remains to be seen, but one thing’s for sure: Worldmax definitely knows how to kick off an event.

Airspan received some negative publicity back in March from Buzz Broadband but continues to be a respected provider of WiMAX solutions. Vodacom Lesotho, a subsidiary of the Pan-African cellular communications company, has officially selected Airspan to be its WiMAX provider.

Vodacom offers world class GSM service, a standard collection of applications and features available to mobile phone subscribers, to more than 23 million customers in South Africa, Tanzania, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Lesotho and Mozambique. Partnering with Airspan will allow Vodacom to provide subscribers with IP data services as a substitute to fixed line broadband access. “Airspan will supply its MicroMAX base stations in the 3.3 - 3.5 GHz frequency band in addition to CPEs (customer premise equipment).” Vodacom believes that Airspan’s solution is perfect, particularly in rural areas, for rapid deployment.

Airspan’s MicroMAX system provides a low-cost, high-performance point-to-multipoint IEEE 802.16 compliant solution. This OFDM based architecture is suited to deliver high-speed data, Voice Over IP (VoIP), and multimedia services to residential, SOHO (small office/home office), and SME (small medium enterprise). MicroMAX offers service providers an integrated access solution, providing quick-to-market deployment and low-market entry cost for broadband services in an expandable “pay as you grow” model. CNN Money News

Given the failure of Airspan’s partnership with Buzz Broadband, Airspan hopes winning this contract with Vodacom will highlight the flexibility and scalability of Airspan’s base stations and CPEs.

City officials face obstacles while trying to provide municipal internet and are looking to WiMAX as the solution. In order to serve poor neighborhoods and the community at large, hundreds of cities including Hartford, Philadelphia, Houston, and San Francisco have attempted to build a free or inexpensive Wi-Fi system.

The motivation to provide universal Internet access lies in a simple fact — poorer urban residents often cannot afford the average $50 a month fee charged by cable companies and other providers. In Hartford, only 25 percent of the city’s households have an Internet connection, compared to 75 percent in surrounding suburbs. Connecticut Post

While Wi-Fi has been working great in most downtown areas where antennas and computers are in close proximity but the Wi-Fi signal is not strong enough to cover a wide area or penetrate through brick apartment buildings. Wi-Fi systems have not been delivering on its promised performance. Hartford officials have been forced to put its municipal internet project on hold and hope WiMAX will serve as an alternative.

According to Jack McCoy, chief information officer for Manchester and a member of the newly created Connecticut Broadband Coordinating Council, “WiMAX could run a citywide network. The concern is it could run into opposition from cable companies and other providers.”

Singapore’s port sees over 500 ships each day–many of which have to perform internet-intensive tasks. To facilitate this, Singapore’s port is now launching a Mobile WiMax network known as the WISEPORT network. The network will provide connectivity throughout the port as well as up to 10 miles at sea, according to WiMAX Day. Thus it will enable more off-shore communication including the exchange of files, maps and other vital commercial data. For casual use, crew members will also now have better access to VoIP and video conferencing.

Some of the implications of the WISEPORT network provide interesting opportunities, particularly for cruise ships. Though some ports for cruise ships do have internet cafes available on port, access on ships themselves can sometimes be limited, if not grossly expensive. A WiMAX-based system could increase access points and in the future potentially defray some of the costs. This logic could extent to ferries and smaller passenger ships.

As brought out by the article, benefits of such a network can also extend onshore. For Singapore’s port,

Shipyards and marine engineering companies, shipping lines, terminal operators, technology companies and government agencies are all expected to benefit from the network. Already, companies and organisations such as Shell, APL, Global Marine Transportation and Tropical Marine Science Institute (TMSI) have expressed interest in connectivity.

Though there were echoes suggesting that Xohm would soft launch in Baltimore, Chicago and Washington, DC early this winter, these plans clearly did not materialize, leaving many wondering when this first big step for Xohm would come to fruition in the United States. As stated on a post on DailyTech, Sprint’s Vice President for Technology Development, Ali Tabassi, says that the time could be this spring.

This piece of information comes as a response to this past Mobile World Congress in Barcelona, where products were enthusiastically displayed with some praises for the WiMAX and murmurs against LTE and competing technologies. Potential users in the United States, however, have yet to see WiMAX developments, making timing ever more crucial for Xohm. Tabassi already acknowledges that delays with Sprint mean that it will mostly likely not reach the hoped-for 100 million subscriber mark this year.

At the same time, though, there is plenty of behind the scenes development that could very well push Xohm ahead. Talks between Sprint and Clearwire are still reported to be near a close, with word of an additional $2 million investment from Intel and probably others. As the deal officially comes to a close the path ahead for Xohm should become clearer to investors and those interested in the progress of WiMAX.

The Kansas City Business Journal recently wrote a small but noteworthy article concerning WiMAX-deployment in the Kansas-city area. Kansas-based company CTC (Computers & TeleComm, Inc.) has recently received license for a block of bandwidth from the FCC and plans to use it to deploy WiMAX “well before Sprint’s XOHM project comes to town.”

Why do we care about WiMAX in Kansas City? For one thing, the fact that a much smaller company is taking up the project of offering WiMAX in their area reveals that there is in fact market interest in–and arguably a need for–the technology, not just for large cities like New York or San Francisco but perhaps especially in more rural areas like some parts of Kansas. There is also a lesson in this for Sprint as well: timing. The rather large task of deploying WiMAX nationwide is something that larger companies like Sprint have within their power to accomplish. However, this plan needs to be executed in a timely fashion in order to essentially grab the market while there is still significant demand (or even before competing technologies gain an advantage). Anecdotes like these show that the time is now. As a result there will hopefully be more rapid progress on the WiMAX/Xohm front in the coming months.

CORRECTION (2/6/08): CTC will be deploying primarily in the Kansas City area, not encompassing “rural areas.”