Now that Sprint’s long-awaited Xohm service has launched in Baltimore to mostly positive reviews, researchers, bloggers, and journalists are beginning to place their bets on the upcoming battle between WiMAX and long term evolution (LTE), its toughest challenger. Researchers at In-Stat have struck the first blow for WiMAX, concluding in a new report that WiMAX is likely to “outpace” LTE over the next few years, though both technologies are still years away from full implementation. In-Stat argues that because LTE will not be ready for at least another year or two, the timing of network roll-outs favors WiMAX technology. But CNET’s Marguerite Reardon is skeptical, as she draws a comparison between Sprint’s Xohm roll-out and the recent failed efforts by EarthLink to develop municipal Wi-Fi networks. She argues that Sprint’s business model may be doomed to fail because it pits WiMAX against existing 3G data services and cheaper, more consistent broadband options such as Verizon DSL. In the absence of financial incentives and a greater variety of WiMAX-ready devices, Reardon predicts that Xohm will face a tough battle for consumers – not necessarily against LTE, but against HSPA products offered by competitors.

However, while Sprint’s WiMAX network in Baltimore may not be as consistent as existing broadband services — for now, at least — it still offers stronger, faster, and more consistent connections than EarthLink’s Wi-Fi project, which depended on countless access points, each with a limited reach. WiMAX offers the freedom of municipal Wi-Fi, but with far less hassle — so the real goal for Sprint is to convince consumers that its service will make their lives easier, liberate them from coffee shops, and save them the trouble of dealing with routers and modems. Their inability to pull this off is by no means a foregone conclusion. Municipal Wi-Fi, after all, is still an attractive concept in theory, if not in practice. And while it’s true that WiMAX-ready mobile devices and laptops are currently few in number, we can doubtlessly expect to see more of these devices entering the market if the launch of Xohm proves to be successful in the long run.

Reardon doesn’t mention LTE directly, but she does inject a bit of unpleasant reality into the WiMAX vs. LTE debate by pointing out the gloomy state of the economy, and in doing so, she raises an important question: what if delays in WiMAX roll-outs give LTE technology time to catch up? Phil Skeffington, an associate with UK-based consultancy Mott MacDonald Schema, doesn’t see a problem. In fact, if Skeffington is right, the battle between WiMAX and LTE may even result in a draw. Skeffington believes that WiMAX and LTE are “complementary technologies,” with LTE poised to become the preferred technology for mobile handsets, and WiMAX set to corner the market of “nomadic” laptop users because of its superior bandwidth capabilities. Because demand from laptop users is higher right now, WiMAX is still likely to hold on to its early lead. Its ability to emerge from the fight unscathed depends on Sprint’s ability to attract consumers, to create demand for devices, and to convince manufacturers and investors to meet that demand. Fortunately for backers of WiMAX, there is plenty of cause for optimism.

September 29, 2008: That Monday was the fateful day of Sprint-Nextel’s long-awaited WiMAX rollout. Xohm launched commercially in Baltimore to great anticipation in four forms: a $35/month modem plan, a $45/month mobile service for use with a PC ExpressCard, a $65/month “pick 2″ plan, and a $10/day tryout, but it’s really the second option that brings something new to the table. Internet anywhere in a city? No wires? And not even that, but faster than your usual cabled setup too! So needless to say, many have already taken Xohm out for a (literal) test drive, so much so that the ExpressCards are selling out in stores.

The bottom line? PC Magazine and Information Week both seem to agree–the new service is undoubtedly fast. PC Magazine’s Sascha Segan: “With a strong signal, I saw download speeds averaging 3.6Mbps, with my fastest test at a blazing 7.1Mbps. That’s faster than my home cable connection!” But “strong signal” are the operative words; the new network still has a lot of gaps to fill. J. Nicholas Hoover of Information Week confesses to having run across a few “dead zones” in areas that were stated as covered, and signal fluctuations were common, as Segan elaborates: “At a shopping mall…I had a significantly stronger signal on the south side of the mall than on the north side.“  But, he continues, “[T]hat’s to be expected from a new wireless network in its first week…Networks start out patchy and then fill in.”

So Sprint’s WiMAX network is far from perfect. But for now, Baltimore residents should be glad to have 35 mph streaming video. Next up is Chicago and D.C.; the former is already getting hyped up with an exhibit in the Museum of Science of Industry featuring a three-story WiMAX-enabled Smart Home. And if you aren’t in Baltimore but are in the seven announced near-future sites (Chicago, D.C., Dallas-Fort Worth, Boston, Providence, Philadelphia), you may still be able to take advantage of fixed WiMAX speeds!

WiMax news has been dominated by a London research firm’s recent announcement that mobile WiMax might be dead on arrival.

“Recent events have been unfavourable toward Mobile WiMAX,” says Frost & Sullivan’s Programme Manager Luke Thomas, referring to Sprint’s delayed deployment of its commercial WiMax network. The firm then focuses on the two aspects of mobile WiMax:

“In terms of indoor wireless broadband, Wi-Fi fits well in this space and with the emergence of 802.11n, which includes MIMO, throughputs would be far better than what MobileWiMAX can deliver…With respect to outdoor mobile broadband environments, users would expect Mobile WiMAX to seamlessly hand off to cellular networks in the absence of WiMAX reception. In reality this is not possible as mobile WiMAX is not backward compatible with existing cellular technologies.” (Centre Daily)

By their diagnosis, the future of mobile WiMax seems bleak indeed. However, the image they portray may be oversimplified to WiMax’s disfavor. For instance, most next-generation broadband technologies will radically change modes of operation, making them incompatible with prior hardware. And before you ask, yes, in this club is the much-championed LTE. So in any discussion of new mobile technology, upgrading existing equipment is almost a given. It’s certainly much more of an industry-wide hurdle than, as Frost & Sullivan make it seem, an obstacle of WiMax exclusively. And already the industry is moving towards a solution, with talks of multimode.

As for the talk of the 802.11n standard of WiFi: last I heard, parts of the standard were still under patent in Australia, and requests for Letters of Assurance were ignored. That’s not a good portent for the standard’s likelihood of approval, as fast as it may be. I’d much rather look to WiMax, which is set to launch in its first large U.S. metropolitan area, Baltimore, in September.

Though there were echoes suggesting that Xohm would soft launch in Baltimore, Chicago and Washington, DC early this winter, these plans clearly did not materialize, leaving many wondering when this first big step for Xohm would come to fruition in the United States. As stated on a post on DailyTech, Sprint’s Vice President for Technology Development, Ali Tabassi, says that the time could be this spring.

This piece of information comes as a response to this past Mobile World Congress in Barcelona, where products were enthusiastically displayed with some praises for the WiMAX and murmurs against LTE and competing technologies. Potential users in the United States, however, have yet to see WiMAX developments, making timing ever more crucial for Xohm. Tabassi already acknowledges that delays with Sprint mean that it will mostly likely not reach the hoped-for 100 million subscriber mark this year.

At the same time, though, there is plenty of behind the scenes development that could very well push Xohm ahead. Talks between Sprint and Clearwire are still reported to be near a close, with word of an additional $2 million investment from Intel and probably others. As the deal officially comes to a close the path ahead for Xohm should become clearer to investors and those interested in the progress of WiMAX.