Ari Zoldan, CEO of Quantum Networks, recently spoke with Ben Kolada, an analyst with the New Paradigm Resources Group, as part of NPRG’s Conversations with Communications Innovators podcast series. Ari discussed the international reach of WiMAX technology, the potential for WiMAX in the United States, and the implications of the Sprint/Clearwire rollout, including the nature of the relationship of WiMAX technology to Long Term Evolution.

• Listen to the podcast here : Ari Zoldan Discusses WiMAX with NPRG

New Paradigm Resources Group is a strategic consulting and research firm for communications innovators. NPRG’s podcast series, available in full at the NPRG homepage, contains discussions with the leaders who are shaping the telecommunications industry.

Now that Sprint’s long-awaited Xohm service has launched in Baltimore to mostly positive reviews, researchers, bloggers, and journalists are beginning to place their bets on the upcoming battle between WiMAX and long term evolution (LTE), its toughest challenger. Researchers at In-Stat have struck the first blow for WiMAX, concluding in a new report that WiMAX is likely to “outpace” LTE over the next few years, though both technologies are still years away from full implementation. In-Stat argues that because LTE will not be ready for at least another year or two, the timing of network roll-outs favors WiMAX technology. But CNET’s Marguerite Reardon is skeptical, as she draws a comparison between Sprint’s Xohm roll-out and the recent failed efforts by EarthLink to develop municipal Wi-Fi networks. She argues that Sprint’s business model may be doomed to fail because it pits WiMAX against existing 3G data services and cheaper, more consistent broadband options such as Verizon DSL. In the absence of financial incentives and a greater variety of WiMAX-ready devices, Reardon predicts that Xohm will face a tough battle for consumers – not necessarily against LTE, but against HSPA products offered by competitors.

However, while Sprint’s WiMAX network in Baltimore may not be as consistent as existing broadband services — for now, at least — it still offers stronger, faster, and more consistent connections than EarthLink’s Wi-Fi project, which depended on countless access points, each with a limited reach. WiMAX offers the freedom of municipal Wi-Fi, but with far less hassle — so the real goal for Sprint is to convince consumers that its service will make their lives easier, liberate them from coffee shops, and save them the trouble of dealing with routers and modems. Their inability to pull this off is by no means a foregone conclusion. Municipal Wi-Fi, after all, is still an attractive concept in theory, if not in practice. And while it’s true that WiMAX-ready mobile devices and laptops are currently few in number, we can doubtlessly expect to see more of these devices entering the market if the launch of Xohm proves to be successful in the long run.

Reardon doesn’t mention LTE directly, but she does inject a bit of unpleasant reality into the WiMAX vs. LTE debate by pointing out the gloomy state of the economy, and in doing so, she raises an important question: what if delays in WiMAX roll-outs give LTE technology time to catch up? Phil Skeffington, an associate with UK-based consultancy Mott MacDonald Schema, doesn’t see a problem. In fact, if Skeffington is right, the battle between WiMAX and LTE may even result in a draw. Skeffington believes that WiMAX and LTE are “complementary technologies,” with LTE poised to become the preferred technology for mobile handsets, and WiMAX set to corner the market of “nomadic” laptop users because of its superior bandwidth capabilities. Because demand from laptop users is higher right now, WiMAX is still likely to hold on to its early lead. Its ability to emerge from the fight unscathed depends on Sprint’s ability to attract consumers, to create demand for devices, and to convince manufacturers and investors to meet that demand. Fortunately for backers of WiMAX, there is plenty of cause for optimism.

Google has announced an aggressive push to bring broadband internet service in to the emerging markets with a strong concentration into Africa. It’s attempting to launch 16 satellites connecting half of the world. The search engine giant has teamed up with John Malone, the cable giant, and HSBC, the international bank behemoth, to set up what they are calling O3B Networks. Their mission in what seems to be a clear objective, is to bring an alternative to fiber, given the fact that the financial viability of running fiber throughout the continent is too expensive.

The announcement for ordering up 16 low-earth orbit satellites from the French aerospace company, Thales Alenia, is expected to be the first stage of a 750 million dollar infusion into the project. In addition, there has been a small contribution by Allen & Company, a media advisory firm, of 20 million dollars. According to Larry Elder, product manager in Google’s alternative access group, “the project could bring the cost of bandwidth in such markets down by 95%”. He further states, “This really fits into Google’s mission to extend internet use around the developing world.”

This is an opportune time for the Wimax community to step up and take some very serious initiative to introduce its technology as a clear bridge for long range distribution to their end-users. The only foreseeable alternative to Wimax distributing the satellites’ broadband signal, would be Long Term Evolution (LTE). However, the standards for this technology have not even been drafted. This is why WiMAX is perfectly positioned to be the alternative true access for optimal broadband in third world countries.

Potentially, this is a tremendous boost for WiMAX technology and all of its mobile applications. Several networks in Africa are already utilizing WiMAX technology and are being hailed a huge success. Assuming Google goes the way of WiMAX, its objective to bring internet to every single person on the planet is within clear reach.

The Canadian equipment manufacturer Nortel is passing on its WiMax operations to Alvarion in order to focus on LTE development, as reported on telecoms.com. Nortel claims the deal allows for both WiMax and LTE, which is projected to get to market faster than anticipated, to be developed on a timely schedule.

But there are other dynamics at play. The most immediate stimulus for the switch may be due to the Clearwire-Sprint deal still fresh in everyone’s minds; such a coalition in support of WiMax technologies has got AT&T and Verizon scrambling to polish the rival technology they’re backing, LTE. Once shipped, LTE hardware will be able to deliver floods of streaming media to mobile users, in as-of-yet unheard of quantities. Is it any surprise that Nortel is eying this development anxiously? In Nortel CEO Mike Zafirovski’s own words, it’ll put “lots of pressure on the bandwidth of the networks” (TheStar.com). Thus they have prioritized, allowing Alvarion to handle WiMax while they lavish the LTE front with the attention it needs.

Smart move ? It seems so. Nortel’s stock consequently jumped 13% following the announcement. But don’t interpret that as a clear indication of market confidence in LTE–the battle lines are still being drawn on the 4G frontier.

In spite of the failed partnership with Clearwire and their current financial strain, Sprint expects to launch Xohm as planned. We could be experiencing a wireless broadband network from Sprint in several major cities, such as Chicago and Washington DC, as early as spring of this year.

According to the LA Times, Sprint’s Chief Executive Dan Hesse is convinced that WiMAX is the way to go even though Sprint’s bigger competitors Verizon and AT&T have disregarded WIMAX in favor of another 4G network known as LTE (Long Term Evolution). LTE is a project in the 3GPP (Third Generation Partnership Project) and is an easier progression from our current wireless networks. While some are concerned that the industry’s two largest carriers are not backing WiMAX, Google, Comcast, and Time Warner are rumored to be jumping on the WiMAX bandwagon. Not to mention, WiMAX was the big buzz word at the CTIA Wireless show in Las Vegas. On Tuesday, Nokia presented its most updated version of N180 Internet Tablet, a WiMAX device projected to run on Sprint’s Xohm network. Motorola displayed a WiMAX enabled car with music, video, and data mapping streaming wirelessly from temporary WiMAX towers placed in the city. All of the hype and optimism surrounding WiMAX is great news for Sprint but may be bad news for Sirius and XM satellite radio.

Sirius and XM have just received the long awaited approval from the Department of Justice for the Sirius XM merger that was first announced back in February of 2007. The merger would double their customer base making it much easier to cover fixed costs. Sirius and XM are also hoping that the merger will help ease the highly competitive environment so acquisition and marketing spending can be lowered. However, with the development of WiMAX, Sirius and XM will face competition from Internet radio which could be streamed wirelessly into cars or mobile phones. Sirius and XM have more than just the pending approval from the FCC to worry about.

Though Ali Tabassi, Sprint’s vice president for technology development was recently quoted as (mockingly) branding LTE as an acronym for “Late To Evolve,” there is more to the relationship between LTE and WiMAX than the speed with which the technology evolves. True, WiMAX has arguably stood at an advantage to LTE due to the fact that it is poised to reach the market faster. However, at the same time some at ABI Research forecast that LTE will surpass WiMAX subscriber numbers by 2015 due, in part, to the fact that it has a stronger hold on global carriers. But is it really the inner workings of LTE and WiMAX as technologies that will determine their stronghold on the mobile community?

Gary Kim on TMCNet elaborates effectively on this recurring issue, making the point that the “battle” between LTE and WiMAX will not ultimately boil down to the merits of each technology, but rather to the success of the business models associated with either one. Successful business models would be inclusive of a wide range of devices while providing fast, cost-effective connectivity, among many other factors. This means that WiMAX needs to act now from a business angle in establishing itself as the next big thing in technology. WiMAX’s timetable advantage over LTE is not necessarily enough. Rather, a timely and business-savvy entrance into the market could mean all the difference for developments in the next five years.

Although the term “4G” has been tossed around a lot in relation to WiMAX, the reality is that the International Telecommunications Union has not yet to define what “4G” actually means. According to In-Stat, the main technologies that are associated with this position include WiMAX, Long Term Evolution (LTE) and Ultra Mobile Broadband (UMB). To better understand the nature of the players involved in so-called 4G technologies, Wikipedia provides some helpful definitions for LTE and UMB (for a definition of WiMAX, see our wimax glossary):

Ultra Mobile Broadband: An ultra fast technology that supports more than an order of magnitude increase in broadband data throughput rates to economically deliver IP-based voice, multimedia, broadband, information technology, entertainment, and consumer electronic services within most kinds of devices. A platform that supports several wireless services within a full mobility environment and thus differentiates itself from Wi-Fi, WiMAX, UWB, etc. Ultra high-speeds that are in the order of 100s of megabits per second; next-generation capabilities, beyond 3G.

Long Term Evolution: 3GPP LTE (Long Term Evolution) is the name given to a project within the Third Generation Partnership Project to improve the UMTS mobile phone standard to cope with future requirements. Goals include improving efficiency, lowering costs, improving services, making use of new spectrum opportunities, and better integration with other open standards. The LTE project is not a standard, but it will result in the new evolved release 8 of the UMTS standard, including mostly or wholly extensions and modifications of the UMTS system.