Now that Sprint’s long-awaited Xohm service has launched in Baltimore to mostly positive reviews, researchers, bloggers, and journalists are beginning to place their bets on the upcoming battle between WiMAX and long term evolution (LTE), its toughest challenger. Researchers at In-Stat have struck the first blow for WiMAX, concluding in a new report that WiMAX is likely to “outpace” LTE over the next few years, though both technologies are still years away from full implementation. In-Stat argues that because LTE will not be ready for at least another year or two, the timing of network roll-outs favors WiMAX technology. But CNET’s Marguerite Reardon is skeptical, as she draws a comparison between Sprint’s Xohm roll-out and the recent failed efforts by EarthLink to develop municipal Wi-Fi networks. She argues that Sprint’s business model may be doomed to fail because it pits WiMAX against existing 3G data services and cheaper, more consistent broadband options such as Verizon DSL. In the absence of financial incentives and a greater variety of WiMAX-ready devices, Reardon predicts that Xohm will face a tough battle for consumers – not necessarily against LTE, but against HSPA products offered by competitors.

However, while Sprint’s WiMAX network in Baltimore may not be as consistent as existing broadband services — for now, at least — it still offers stronger, faster, and more consistent connections than EarthLink’s Wi-Fi project, which depended on countless access points, each with a limited reach. WiMAX offers the freedom of municipal Wi-Fi, but with far less hassle — so the real goal for Sprint is to convince consumers that its service will make their lives easier, liberate them from coffee shops, and save them the trouble of dealing with routers and modems. Their inability to pull this off is by no means a foregone conclusion. Municipal Wi-Fi, after all, is still an attractive concept in theory, if not in practice. And while it’s true that WiMAX-ready mobile devices and laptops are currently few in number, we can doubtlessly expect to see more of these devices entering the market if the launch of Xohm proves to be successful in the long run.

Reardon doesn’t mention LTE directly, but she does inject a bit of unpleasant reality into the WiMAX vs. LTE debate by pointing out the gloomy state of the economy, and in doing so, she raises an important question: what if delays in WiMAX roll-outs give LTE technology time to catch up? Phil Skeffington, an associate with UK-based consultancy Mott MacDonald Schema, doesn’t see a problem. In fact, if Skeffington is right, the battle between WiMAX and LTE may even result in a draw. Skeffington believes that WiMAX and LTE are “complementary technologies,” with LTE poised to become the preferred technology for mobile handsets, and WiMAX set to corner the market of “nomadic” laptop users because of its superior bandwidth capabilities. Because demand from laptop users is higher right now, WiMAX is still likely to hold on to its early lead. Its ability to emerge from the fight unscathed depends on Sprint’s ability to attract consumers, to create demand for devices, and to convince manufacturers and investors to meet that demand. Fortunately for backers of WiMAX, there is plenty of cause for optimism.

September 29, 2008: That Monday was the fateful day of Sprint-Nextel’s long-awaited WiMAX rollout. Xohm launched commercially in Baltimore to great anticipation in four forms: a $35/month modem plan, a $45/month mobile service for use with a PC ExpressCard, a $65/month “pick 2″ plan, and a $10/day tryout, but it’s really the second option that brings something new to the table. Internet anywhere in a city? No wires? And not even that, but faster than your usual cabled setup too! So needless to say, many have already taken Xohm out for a (literal) test drive, so much so that the ExpressCards are selling out in stores.

The bottom line? PC Magazine and Information Week both seem to agree–the new service is undoubtedly fast. PC Magazine’s Sascha Segan: “With a strong signal, I saw download speeds averaging 3.6Mbps, with my fastest test at a blazing 7.1Mbps. That’s faster than my home cable connection!” But “strong signal” are the operative words; the new network still has a lot of gaps to fill. J. Nicholas Hoover of Information Week confesses to having run across a few “dead zones” in areas that were stated as covered, and signal fluctuations were common, as Segan elaborates: “At a shopping mall…I had a significantly stronger signal on the south side of the mall than on the north side.“  But, he continues, “[T]hat’s to be expected from a new wireless network in its first week…Networks start out patchy and then fill in.”

So Sprint’s WiMAX network is far from perfect. But for now, Baltimore residents should be glad to have 35 mph streaming video. Next up is Chicago and D.C.; the former is already getting hyped up with an exhibit in the Museum of Science of Industry featuring a three-story WiMAX-enabled Smart Home. And if you aren’t in Baltimore but are in the seven announced near-future sites (Chicago, D.C., Dallas-Fort Worth, Boston, Providence, Philadelphia), you may still be able to take advantage of fixed WiMAX speeds!

The Sprint-Clearwire deal gave Clearwire undeniable credibility in WiMAX development, and the company is moving forward with the technology in a big way. Beta tests are underway in Portland, with “more than 70 percent of [the] WiMAX sites for Portland…in construction or on air.” Completion is slated for the end of year, with commercial deployments in that city and 3 others in 2009.

But now they have more than just the hardware; as of July 2nd, Clearwire has leased 3 one-year licenses on the 39 GHz spectrum from IDT Spectrum, 2 of which are in the Oregon-Washington area. You may not have heard much about IDT Spectrum recently, but expect to hear the name much in the near future; they own spectrums nationwide, mostly in the 28 and 38/39 GHz range. As we come upon the dawning age of wireless, the value of spectrum cannot be understated: you need spectrum to do anything wireless–especially for WiMAX, which is contentionless. (That means it can only operate on licensed spectrum because it is built to assume the air is clear. If it isn’t, the equipment just doesn’t work! ). Naturally, some companies are trying to develop equipment to change that, but for now, that is the nature of most WiMAX equipment. Those who bought spectrum when a majority of it was auctioned off by the FCC in the 80s are finally seeing their investment bear fruit, whether they intend to lease or sell –  remember the 700MHz auction earlier this year, which grossed a total of $19 billion?

So Clearwire has hardware, spectrum, and is well underway in deployment; what’s to follow ? If all goes well, 2009 will see Las Vegas, Grand Rapids, Atlanta, and Portland commercial launches as the first four commercial markets for Clearwire’s WiMAX service, primed to follow at the heels of the Xohm launches in Baltimore, Chicago, and Washington D.C. in the fall of this year. The start of the WiMAX nationwide buildout is only months away.

WiMax news has been dominated by a London research firm’s recent announcement that mobile WiMax might be dead on arrival.

“Recent events have been unfavourable toward Mobile WiMAX,” says Frost & Sullivan’s Programme Manager Luke Thomas, referring to Sprint’s delayed deployment of its commercial WiMax network. The firm then focuses on the two aspects of mobile WiMax:

“In terms of indoor wireless broadband, Wi-Fi fits well in this space and with the emergence of 802.11n, which includes MIMO, throughputs would be far better than what MobileWiMAX can deliver…With respect to outdoor mobile broadband environments, users would expect Mobile WiMAX to seamlessly hand off to cellular networks in the absence of WiMAX reception. In reality this is not possible as mobile WiMAX is not backward compatible with existing cellular technologies.” (Centre Daily)

By their diagnosis, the future of mobile WiMax seems bleak indeed. However, the image they portray may be oversimplified to WiMax’s disfavor. For instance, most next-generation broadband technologies will radically change modes of operation, making them incompatible with prior hardware. And before you ask, yes, in this club is the much-championed LTE. So in any discussion of new mobile technology, upgrading existing equipment is almost a given. It’s certainly much more of an industry-wide hurdle than, as Frost & Sullivan make it seem, an obstacle of WiMax exclusively. And already the industry is moving towards a solution, with talks of multimode.

As for the talk of the 802.11n standard of WiFi: last I heard, parts of the standard were still under patent in Australia, and requests for Letters of Assurance were ignored. That’s not a good portent for the standard’s likelihood of approval, as fast as it may be. I’d much rather look to WiMax, which is set to launch in its first large U.S. metropolitan area, Baltimore, in September.

In spite of the failed partnership with Clearwire and their current financial strain, Sprint expects to launch Xohm as planned. We could be experiencing a wireless broadband network from Sprint in several major cities, such as Chicago and Washington DC, as early as spring of this year.

According to the LA Times, Sprint’s Chief Executive Dan Hesse is convinced that WiMAX is the way to go even though Sprint’s bigger competitors Verizon and AT&T have disregarded WIMAX in favor of another 4G network known as LTE (Long Term Evolution). LTE is a project in the 3GPP (Third Generation Partnership Project) and is an easier progression from our current wireless networks. While some are concerned that the industry’s two largest carriers are not backing WiMAX, Google, Comcast, and Time Warner are rumored to be jumping on the WiMAX bandwagon. Not to mention, WiMAX was the big buzz word at the CTIA Wireless show in Las Vegas. On Tuesday, Nokia presented its most updated version of N180 Internet Tablet, a WiMAX device projected to run on Sprint’s Xohm network. Motorola displayed a WiMAX enabled car with music, video, and data mapping streaming wirelessly from temporary WiMAX towers placed in the city. All of the hype and optimism surrounding WiMAX is great news for Sprint but may be bad news for Sirius and XM satellite radio.

Sirius and XM have just received the long awaited approval from the Department of Justice for the Sirius XM merger that was first announced back in February of 2007. The merger would double their customer base making it much easier to cover fixed costs. Sirius and XM are also hoping that the merger will help ease the highly competitive environment so acquisition and marketing spending can be lowered. However, with the development of WiMAX, Sirius and XM will face competition from Internet radio which could be streamed wirelessly into cars or mobile phones. Sirius and XM have more than just the pending approval from the FCC to worry about.

Unstrung has provided a hopeful article on Clearwire and Sprint’s possible reunion on the WiMAX front–apparently with help from Google and others. Analyst Eric Kainer provides a synopsis on some of the possibilities:

- When could the deal be announced? The Mobile World Congress in Barcelona is one possibility. It takes place next week.
- Clearwire is “close to the finish line” in the deal with Sprint
- Google’s interest in Xohm may be because they feel they can reach more people sooner than via 700 MHz broadband.
- With Sprint’s financial troubles in the news and Clearwire in need of more funding, this may be the optimal time for a reunion

The Kansas City Business Journal recently wrote a small but noteworthy article concerning WiMAX-deployment in the Kansas-city area. Kansas-based company CTC (Computers & TeleComm, Inc.) has recently received license for a block of bandwidth from the FCC and plans to use it to deploy WiMAX “well before Sprint’s XOHM project comes to town.”

Why do we care about WiMAX in Kansas City? For one thing, the fact that a much smaller company is taking up the project of offering WiMAX in their area reveals that there is in fact market interest in–and arguably a need for–the technology, not just for large cities like New York or San Francisco but perhaps especially in more rural areas like some parts of Kansas. There is also a lesson in this for Sprint as well: timing. The rather large task of deploying WiMAX nationwide is something that larger companies like Sprint have within their power to accomplish. However, this plan needs to be executed in a timely fashion in order to essentially grab the market while there is still significant demand (or even before competing technologies gain an advantage). Anecdotes like these show that the time is now. As a result there will hopefully be more rapid progress on the WiMAX/Xohm front in the coming months.

CORRECTION (2/6/08): CTC will be deploying primarily in the Kansas City area, not encompassing “rural areas.”

With last week’s announcement of 4,000 job cuts, reductions in its retail footprint and the loss of three top executives, many wonder what all these changes with Sprint will mean for Xohm. To provide more background on the latest news, key executives Paul Saleh (chief financial officer), Tim Kelly (chief marketing officer), and Mark Angelino (president of sales and distribution) are all leaving Sprint in the wake up plummeting profits and subscriber losses for the company. These realities have defied Sprint’s hopeful financial estimates and lead to some criticism–criticism that has been somewhat on the rise since the company’s acquisition of Nextel a few years ago.

Though Xohm has not been specifically mentioned in conjunction with some of the changes that have been happening with Sprint, one can’t help but wonder if it will be affected. While there were hopes that Sprint would open the new year with a big bang on its promise to roll-out nationwide, buzz on their initial three-city soft launch has been on the low end. This has resulted in some doubts, as John Oram of Geek.com expressed, “Often Sprint makes good technology decisions, however their implementations are sorely lacking; e.g., Sprint’s promised WiMAX ’savior solution’ that is going to be, at best, a tough row to hoe.” At the same time, however, there are no indications that Xohm will be coming to a halt being that Sprint has positioned the division alongside several services and agencies that will help make it happen.

Though these key movements among Sprint’s executives and other changes may suggest instability or reason for doubt, developments with Xohm still seem to be in order for 2008. Any announcements from the company suggesting otherwise remain to be seen.

As rumblings in the news reveal, Sprint just announced that WiMAX is coming soon– as early as April of this year, according to some sources. This news is a good boost to overall WiMAX morale, given that naysayers have spoken negatively of the rollout since the Clearwire and Sprint fallout late last year.

Just as interesting as the rollout are some of the partnerships that are making it possible. We can see that these partnerships span the globe and are taking into account all facets of Xohm as a true contender in the wireless market. Mobile Tech News reports on just some of these. I have compiled them into a chart for the sake of reader-friendliness:

With the new year, investors and all breeds of business people are re-evaluating–and maybe even crossing their fingers–for the industries they’ve put their money on. Many are wondering if this will be the big year for WiMAX in particular. Fortune seems to think so. In an article entitled ”The Top 10 Wireless Trends for 2008” WiMAX came in at number five with some buzz about Xohm and Nokia’s WiMAX-enabled Internet tablet.

Also noteworthy is the fact that nearly all the other listed trends either go hand-in-hand with WiMAX or would benefit from the deployment of a nationwide network. For instance, camera phones with much more advanced functions are listed as one hot trend. With WiMAX, sending and receiving cell phone pictures would be so much faster and easier than it is on traditional cellular networks. Furthermore, WiMAX aficionados even speak of traditional digital cameras becoming WiMAX-enabled, with the ability to quickly and easily upload pictures to blogs, e-mails or other devices without ever touching a USB cord or PC. If camera phones have hit big, how much more so would a WiMAX-enabled camera be likely to hit the trend list?

For 2008, investors and others with a hand in WiMAX will be happy to see that secular sources are keeping an eye on WiMAX. The public’s technological needs and desires can be matched by what WiMAX has to offer–the key is getting it out there for the taking.